Analysis: Cryptocurrencies lack verifiable return stories and are continuously losing to AI in the competition for institutional capital

According to research by CointelegraphMT, traditional financial markets are absorbing institutional capital at a pace that cryptocurrencies find hard to match by 2026. The main reason is that AI has clear and measurable returns, while cryptocurrencies currently lack a similar narrative.

Data shows that the S&P 500 index rose only 3.5% after excluding AI stocks in 2026, while AI-related indices saw an increase of nearly 50%. The five major tech companies in the U.S. are expected to reach $72.5 billion in capital expenditures for AI infrastructure this year, with Nvidia's quarterly revenue reaching $81.6 billion.

The research points out that AI spending can be directly validated through revenue, capital expenditures, and profit margins, while the value proposition of cryptocurrencies is difficult to quantify for traditional allocators. Currently, while the supply of stablecoins is at a historical high, more funds are flowing into tokenized government bonds rather than risk assets.

Additionally, in May, the net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was $2.3 billion, marking the worst single month of the year. However, long-term holders continue to buy in the over-the-counter market, with market makers like Wintermute reporting stable buying around $72,000. The research concludes that unless cryptocurrencies can provide a measurable and repeatable institutional-level return story similar to AI, they will be at a significant disadvantage in competing for the same institutional funds.