CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Profitable Supply Is Near 45% Pressure Zone as On-Chain Data Points to Market Repricing

On June 10, according to TechFlow citing CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s on-chain “percentage of supply in profit” metric is approaching the key 45% level. CryptoQuant said this zone has historically appeared during periods of rising market stress, selling pressure, and capitulation sentiment. By contrast, near bull market peaks, the metric often rises above 90%.

Based on its current assessment, more Bitcoin holdings are shifting from unrealized profit to unrealized loss, suggesting that the market is closer to a deep expectation reset than an overheated sentiment phase.

The metric measures what percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is still in profit at current prices. When the percentage continues to decline, it usually means that coins acquired at higher prices are moving into loss, while pressure on short- and medium-term holders rises at the same time.

The original report did not provide the exact real-time reading of the metric or a full historical sample for comparison. Therefore, the 45% threshold should be treated more as an on-chain experience-based signal rather than a standalone directional indicator.

CryptoQuant also noted that when profit margins are compressed, on-chain supply often transfers from weaker hands to long-term holders. This process may bring higher short-term volatility, as loss realization, selling pressure, and leverage reduction can happen at the same time. However, from a historical on-chain perspective, once redistribution is completed, the market structure often becomes more stable than before.

In the current context, this type of signal mainly suggests that the market is still digesting previous gains and repricing risk appetite. It does not confirm that a new long-term trend has already formed.

Why It Matters

This signal matters because it reflects market structure, not just price movement. Unlike sentiment indicators, the percentage of supply in profit can show whether on-chain holders still have a broad cost-basis cushion.

When the share of profitable supply shrinks significantly, spot-holder selling pressure, derivatives deleveraging, and passive stop-loss risks can become more likely to overlap. Market liquidity may also become more fragile.

For trading markets, this type of on-chain threshold acts more like a stress-test indicator. It cannot define a market bottom or top by itself, but it can help traders judge whether the market is closer to emotional capitulation or overheated expansion.

Since the current information mainly comes from CryptoQuant’s view and lacks a fuller historical backtest sample, it is better to treat this as a risk-identification signal rather than a definitive conclusion.

WEEX View

The core market debate is not the 45% number itself. The real question is whether this expansion of unrealized losses will continue moving Bitcoin from high-cost short-term accounts into low-turnover and low-leverage long-term wallets.

For front-line CEX businesses, the practical signal is not the phrase “on-chain reset.” The real things to watch are whether spot net inflows slow, whether futures open interest continues to contract, and whether large holders move selling pressure away from public order books and into fragmented OTC execution.

If on-chain losses continue to expand but exchanges do not see persistent deposit-driven selling pressure, it may suggest that Old Money has not truly exited the market. Instead, capital may simply be shifting its holding structure.

Another layer to watch is whether liquidity and arbitrage boundaries deteriorate at the same time. If the market enters a deeper deleveraging phase, the common signs are not always a single sharp crash. More often, altcoins lose liquidity first, Bitcoin becomes relatively more resilient, perpetual funding rates cool down, lending demand weakens, and market makers reduce risk exposure.

The most sensitive variables in this phase include changes in exchange BTC balances, the strength of stablecoin inflows, the speed of spot-futures basis normalization, and whether high-cost coins show concentrated movement.

If these indicators do not continue to worsen, the area around the 45% profitable supply level may be interpreted as a token redistribution zone. But if it is accompanied by thinner spot liquidity and rising large-scale transfers to exchanges, short-term volatility pressure may not have fully cleared yet.