Wintermute: Last week's CPI met expectations + the end of the Iran conflict, BTC rebounded but crypto liquidity has not yet reversed
Wintermute stated in its latest market report that there was a significant rebound in the market last week, driven by two main factors: first, the May CPI data met expectations (year-on-year 4.2%), and there was no unexpected overheating as previously feared by the market; second, the end of the Iran conflict led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices.
Wintermute believes that since October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three pullbacks of over 20%, and the current drop from $83,000 to $60,000 is considered a "bear market false breakout." Currently, there has been no structural reversal in the inflows of ETFs, stablecoins, and digital asset treasury (DAT), and liquidity remains a key factor limiting the sustainability of the rebound.
The report pointed out that the risk-reward ratio for BTC around $60,000 is attractive, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and the possibility of further probing down to the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.
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